Even though I’m comfortable writing about advertising, not economics, the economy is one of the big forces weighing on our industry–it needs to be examined and some kind of meaning from the various indicators needs to be gained.
Here’s one glass half-full look from the Washington Post:
A recovery that seemed tentative and halting a year ago now appears to be durable and more entrenched, having weathered a soft patch.
One leading forecasting firm, Macroeconomic Advisers, estimates the U.S. economy will grow 4.4 percent in 2011; Moody’s Analytics expects 3.9 percent growth; IHS Global Insight envisions 3 percent growth.
On the glass is half-empty side of the coin is Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist & Strategist, David Rosenberg, who said in August that we’re in “a Depression not a Recession,” is now saying, “Real GDP growth in the U.S.A. is set to slow from around 3% in 2010 to 2% in 2011, or possibly even lower.”
We’re not out of the economic weeds by any stretch, but one thing people in marketing can be confident of is this: whatever the economy is doing, companies still need to sell the things they make and the services they offer. The question is, how much money will they find in their budgets to allocate to marketing, when economic pressure puts an intense squeeze on operations, hiring and investment?